The match is modeled 100,000 times with different inputs from historical performance of the last 10 matches, as well as matches in which the teams met each other. Based on the results, the probability is calculated that the match will end with a total higher or lower than the bookmaker offers.
Important: The method applies only to the pre-match line!
Calculation example: The bookmaker offers Over 154.5 at 1.92 and Under 154.5 at 1.92. After margin deduction, this corresponds to 50%/50% probabilities. Our simulation shows: 65% for Over (odds 1.54) and 35% for Under (odds 2.86). An undervaluation of Over by 15% was detected.
Note: With an advantage of less than 5%, it is recommended to skip the bet.